Judgment & bias
Behavioral Science
How people actually reason and decide.
Human judgment is powerful and predictably fallible. Any system that augments organizational reasoning must account for how people form beliefs, weigh evidence, and defer.
What it contributes
Grounds the discipline in the realities of human cognition — the biases, heuristics, and trust dynamics a reasoning system must respect and correct for.
Foundational ideas
- Bounded rationality
- Reasoning within limits.
- Heuristics & biases
- Systematic errors in judgment.
- Calibration
- Matching confidence to accuracy.
Open questions
- How do people calibrate trust in machine-generated judgment?
- When should a reasoning system defer to a human, and vice versa?